MORENICE CHINA TRADE & SHIPPING UPDATE · SEPTEMBER 3, 2026
Hormuz traffic drops sharply as China–Gulf freight costs rise and US-bound rates stay elevated
Middle East shipping risk increased again on September 2 as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell well below recent averages. At the same time, the latest Shanghai shipping indices show higher China–Persian Gulf/Red Sea freight costs and renewed strength on US-bound routes, while European rates are easing. For buyers, the key issue is increasingly route reliability and total landed cost—not simply the headline ocean rate.
1. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell sharply after the latest escalation
Preliminary Kpler tracking data cited by Reuters showed only four commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on September 2, compared with about 10 the previous day and a recent 10-day average of roughly 13.
Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was also below its recent average. The figures can change as vessel-tracking data is updated, particularly because some ships switch off AIS transponders in high-risk areas.
This follows the September 1 attacks on two tankers carrying Saudi crude and renewed military exchanges in the region.
For Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia shipments, buyers should reconfirm:
vessel→route→discharge port→transshipment/landbridge→insurance→contingency surcharge
A booking confirmation should no longer be treated as proof that the original route will actually be used.
Fast-changing: Hormuz conditions remain highly volatile. Routing and carrier acceptance should be checked immediately before cargo enters the port.
2. China–Persian Gulf and Red Sea freight costs continue rising
The latest official China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows a mixed market.
For the week ending August 28:
- Overall CCFI: 1,833.99, up 0.7%
- Persian Gulf / Red Sea: 3,407.62, up 2.7%
- US East Coast: up 1.9%
- Mediterranean: down 4.3%
- US West Coast: down 0.2%
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index also rose from 3,409.63 to 3,509.53, approximately 2.9% week on week.
There is no single “global freight trend” right now. China buyers should price shipments route by route:
China → Gulf: upward cost pressure
China → US: still expensive and capacity-sensitive
China → Europe/Mediterranean: somewhat softer
For Middle East buyers, waiting for global freight indices to fall may not produce cheaper Gulf freight if regional security premiums continue rising.
3. China–US East Coast spot freight has moved above USD 10,000/FEU on the SCFI benchmark
Shanghai Shipping Exchange data for August 28 showed continued strengthening on US-bound services.
The latest SCFI assessment put Shanghai/Far East–US East Coast freight at approximately USD 10,046 per 40ft container, while US West Coast freight was around USD 6,940 per 40ft container.
The broader SCFI rose for a fifth consecutive week.
US importers should be cautious about suppliers offering quotations based on freight levels from several weeks ago.
Before confirming a CIF/DDP price, verify:
current ocean rate→surcharge validity→free time→destination charges→tariff exposure
For long-production orders, separating the product price from freight validity can reduce disputes if shipping costs change before cargo is ready.
4. China is pushing automotive exporters toward stronger overseas compliance
China’s Ministry of Commerce explained on September 1 new guidance covering overseas competition and compliance for the automotive sector.
The guidance emphasizes product quality and safety, fair competition, overseas marketing, data compliance, labour requirements and broader compliance obligations for Chinese automotive businesses operating internationally. China exported 8.32 million vehicles in 2025, according to Customs data cited by MOFCOM.
Pure electric passenger vehicles also remain subject to China’s export-licensing regime that took effect on January 1, 2026.
Buyers sourcing vehicles, EVs or automotive-related products from China should verify the exporting entity, not merely the factory or vehicle.
Before payment, check:
export qualification→VIN/product documentation→required licence→destination certification→supplier/exporter relationship
A supplier having the product does not automatically mean that it can legally export that product.
MORENICE BUYER NOTE
Freight price and freight risk are moving differently depending on destination.
For overseas buyers, especially in the Middle East, we recommend checking the complete transaction before payment:
Supplier→Product→Export eligibility→Actual route→Freight & surcharges→Landed cost
A USD 200 cheaper freight quotation has little value if the cargo is rolled, rerouted or later attracts several thousand dollars in contingency charges.
MORENICE · YIWU, CHINA
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